When the Labor Day weekend of 2026 signals the traditional start of the fall political season, the race for governor will become clear. But a full year away, that race is already taking shape.
While Gov. Ned Lamont currently says he’s still pondering a third, four-year term, political observers say he’ll certainly run again. They say that his engagement and energy, with daily public events organized by his office, such as ceremonial bill signings for legislation actually signed weeks earlier, are sure indicators. Lamont has signaled as much.
“If Lamont were to run, it’s his election to lose because of the power of the incumbency,” said Gayle Alberda, political science professor at Fairfield University. “The perks are his achievements and record. He has a built-in infrastructure, credibility and prestige, plus high levels of name recognition before even engaging again with voters.”
“Everything is lined up for him for a third term,” said Gary L. Rose, a scholar in-residence at Sacred Heart University.
Recently returned from his summer home on a Maine island that’s been a family property since 1917, a reporter tried to finally get a straight answer. “You’ve been off two weeks, you gonna tell us something now?” the reporter asked in New London last week.
“Nope,” Lamont replied. “Soon. I think we’re making good progress in this state, and I love what we’re doing. I’m inclined to do it, but I’m just trying to put it off a little bit longer.”
One of the top-six governors in approval ratings, according to a recent nationwide poll, Lamont has a big advantage over state Rep. Josh Elliott of Hamden, who is challenging the governor from the left. Elliott is hoping to capture the kind of political lightning in a bottle that Lamont himself grabbed in 2006: a primary victory over then-U.S. Senate Joe Lieberman, who went on that fall to keep his seat, running as an independent.
On the Republican side, the outgoing Westport First Selectwoman Jennifer Tooker, Timothy Wilcox of Norwich and fourth-year state Sen. Ryan Fazio have declared their candidacies. Outgoing New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart is also expected to join the fray, eventually turning her exploratory campaign into a candidate committee.
Republican State Central Committee Chairman Ben Proto said that the state’s public financing system should make the eventual GOP nominee competitive with Lamont, a multi-millionaire who does not take a state salary and paid for his 2018 and 2022 campaigns – more than $40 million – from his own pocket. In 2022, he claimed $54 million in income, mostly from investments.
“This is a guy who makes a million dollars a week if he doesn’t get out of bed,” Proto said of the governor. Any general election expenditures over $15 million per candidates is probably not needed, he said. “At some point you reach a diminishing return on the amount of money you spend. You get to run a few more ads.”
Statewide voter registration includes 488,041 Republicans, 822,499 Democrats and 957,782 unaffiliated voters.
How the race, especially on the Republican side, is anyone’s guess. A spring GOP convention would lead to an endorsement, but it’s possible a summer primary could follow. Two years ago, despite former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides winning the nomination to run for U.S. Senate against Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Leora Levy defeated her in a primary following an endorsement phone call from Donald Trump.
Touting an in-house poll that shows Stewart within striking distance of Lamont, Morgan Wilson, senior advisor to Stewart’s exploratory committee, recently said that the survey of 400 GOP voters indicate support for a nominee “from outside Fairfield County with a proven history” of winning elections.
“It’s time for a new generation of proven leadership, not one defined by personal finances or Hartford insider ties,” Wilson said in a statement.
Fazio, in a Friday statement, said that during the two weeks he’s been on the campaign trail, he’s gotten positive feedback. “One thing is clear: Connecticut voters are ready for positive change,” he said. “They’re ready for lower electric bills, lower taxes, and law and order – that’s the exact message we are bringing across our state.”
Rose, a longtime SHU politics professor, said that the poll released by the Stewart campaign occurred within days of Fazio jumping into the campaign. “I don’t doubt that she’s the leading Republican, but Ryan has a good chance of closing the gap, particularly among conservative Republicans,” said Rose.
“Those August primaries have low turnouts,” Rose said. “Any poll showing she’s ahead is very premature. Ryan is definitely right of center and I think he’s a viable candidate, particularly among conservatives. Erin has a reputation of working across the aisle, but I am not sure if that’s what conservatives want at this moment.”
Nearly four years ago, Lamont waited until the second week of November to announce plans to run for a second term. He recently hosted several of the state’s big-city mayors at the Governor’s Residence in Hartford. But after seven years in office, progressive Democrats in the legislature are eager for higher taxes on the state’s wealthiest to fund social programs at a time when they – and other federal funding streams – are being threatened by the Trump administration.
Rose said Friday that when Luke Bronin, the former Hartford mayor, recently announced a potential primary challenge to 1st District U.S. Rep. John Larson, it was a solid tip that Lamont was running for a third term.
“I think in Lamont’s case, he’s very popular, his approval ratings are strong” Rose said. “Obviously he has a war chest that’s a bottomless pit. Plus, there’s a bipartisan chord he has struck with the public. A number of Republicans in the business community appreciate him. He’s not ideological. He’s a centrist. He can certainly talk about the state budget surpluses.”
“Even though the laws are enacted by the General Assembly, the governor is the person we blame or reward,” said Alberda, of Fairfield University. Pitfalls for incumbents include economic down turns and large scandals. In 2004, then-Gov. John Rowland resigned under pressure, when the state Supreme Court ruled that he had to testify before a state House Committee of Inquiry that looked into the awarding of lucrative state contracts and tax breaks. He wasn’t halfway through his third term. By the end of that year, Rowland pleaded guilty to federal felonies. He was recently pardoned by Trump.
While Lamont’s signature bill this year might be the $300 million child case endowment fund, his veto of a controversial affordable housing bill that his staff helped negotiate with legislative leaders, earned Lamont some animosity and it seems less likely that a special legislative session will be called on the issue for September.
Without an early fall housing initiative with fellow Democrats, Lamont could further delay announcing a reelection campaign until the tension subsides.
Elliott on Friday chided Lamont for not joining most Democratic governors who signed a Thursday letter sent to Trump, asking that he back away from possibly sending National Guard troops into their states.
“There are two trains of thought, generally about dealing with the fed government right now,” Elliott said in a phone interview. “You don’t get caught in the president’s cross hairs or you everything fight tooth and nail. Both sides come at this from trying to protect our people. With three-and-a-half years left in his term, if we do not fight, we will not be OK. The worst thing we can do is try to weather the storms.”
On June 8, Lamont joined in a statement from the Democratic Governors Association condemning Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Los Angeles. Two days later, he joined Attorney General William Tong in criticizing the action.
Staff writers Alex Putterman and Paul Hughes contributed to this report.
Original article found on MSN
